Another unsurprising departure:
U.S. Rep. Artur Davis on Friday will declare his intention to seek the governorship of Alabama, sources close to the congressman confirm.
The much-anticipated announcement marks the most serious bid ever launched by a black candidate to win the top office in a state that still observes Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis’ birthdays but that also gave rise to the civil rights movement that ended Jim Crow.
Sources close to the campaign said Davis, 41, will announce his intention to seek the Democratic Party nomination for governor at a midday event Friday in Birmingham, which he represents in Congress, followed by a late-afternoon event in his native Montgomery. He’ll kick off his campaign outside the state’s Archives, within sight of the first White House of the Confederacy and the Alabama Capitol, where that Confederacy was born 148 years ago Wednesday.
Ag Comm’r and SSP hero Ron Sparks, as well as Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom, are also considering runs for the Dems. Open seat fans, don’t fret – Obama won 79% of the vote in AL-07. In fact, this is a good opportunity to replace Davis with someone more progressive, in the mold, perhaps, of Steve Cohen replacing Harold Ford, Jr.
UPDATE: A Roll Call piece (h/t politicalal) lists some potential AL-07 candidates:
Of the several members of the state Legislature who have been mentioned as possible Davis replacements, the most intriguing may be state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. (D), the son of the former Congressman [whom Davis ousted in a primary in 2002]. …
Other Democratic state legislators whose names have been floated as possible candidates in the 7th include state Rep. Merika Coleman and state Sen. Rodger Smitherman, who both hail from Jefferson County, where Birmingham is located. State Sen. Bobby Singleton, whose senate district includes parts of Tuscaloosa and rural counties south and west, has also been mentioned. …
Birmingham attorney Terri Sewell, a longtime associate of Davis’ who attended Princeton University at the same time as first lady Michelle Obama, is expected to run in an open-seat race in the 7th. …
Another candidate mentioned in Democratic circles is Sheila Smoot, a two-term Jefferson County commissioner who is also known for her work as a former television news anchor.
There’s another decent pickup opportunity lost. I put Davis’s ceiling at 43%. If we’re going to have a black candidate with no chance of winning it coud at least be Charles Barkley. That way it’s fun to watch if nothing else.
but getting rid of him from the House is worth his candidacy.
Any chance, though, with all the retirements already in the Senate, Richard Shelby might hang it up? I think Ron Sparks, however, might have a shot at winning an open Senate race in a midterm.
in this district?
I don’t suspect that Artur Davis is as conservative personally as a voting record shows. I think this was just a case of him trying to carve out a moderate record for this statewide run. I could be wrong though.
GOP:
FL-12 (Putnam)
KS-01 (Moran)
KS-04 (Tiahrt)
MI-02 (Hoekstra)
TN-03 (Wamp)
Dems:
AL-07 (Davis)
FL-17 (Meek)
Am I forgetting any?
What Happens If Davis Runs turned into what happens when Davis Announces.
has as little of a chance as some here. He’s smart and savy and shouldn’t be underestimated. Obama got 40 percent here, he’s certainly do better. It’s a tough slog, but if everything goes right I think he could win.
Hard to say whether Davis will have a shot. Alabama does tend to vote for dems in statewide races and we have a dem legislature. I don’t think there’s any real evidence that Obama only got 10% of the white vote. Even if he had gotten every single black vote, 10% of the white vote would not make up his total. Regardless, Obama ran no campaign here so it’s not a great indicator.
When Davis gives a speech about Alabama politics, he is plenty progressive. The big issue is education funding and Davis would commit himself to that in a way that no other candidate would.
He did a rally with Segall in Montgomery right around the time they were arguing about the bailout.
Jewish support was a huge deal between Davis and Hilliard b/c Davis couldn’t raise enough money to do a ton of ads. Hilliard had gone to Libya and made some pro-Palestinian comments and Davis got a ton of support. But yeah, the major issue was ethics and Davis has been opposed to any sort of pay-to-play arrangement, never doing favors for donors.
On getting a progressive in AL-7, the question is probably who might have state-wide ambitions. Someone with broader ambitions is going to want to look more conservative. Also, Birmingham is a banking town, tons of big banks headquartered there. So that explains Davis on bankruptcy.
Voter registration stats in Alabama indicate that blacks comprised 26.1% of active voters in Alabama as of 12/31/2008. If Obama got 40% of the vote, he probably got more like 19% or 20% of the white vote in Alabama. The math would work as follows:
Obama % – black % = 40-26.1=13.9
13.9/73.9=18.8% (that’s the total vote-26.1=73.9)
That’s a rough number. I don’t know if black turnout exceeded white turnout (probably yes). The offset is that Obama may have gotten 95% of the black vote but he didn’t get 100%. I figure that the two effects cancel each other out.
Turnout for a Presidential election probably exceeded 70%. Turnout in the last two Governor’s elections was a lot lower (58% in 2002 and 50.6% in 2006). That’s the wildcard. Davis would need 100% of the black vote and 32.3% of the white vote. The goal should ve 35%.
he would have to run Jefferson County and Montgomery County at upwards of 55%. He would need to win Madison County (Huntsville) and at least break even in Mobile (unlikely with a Mobile candidate which is very likely on the ballot). He would also have to close the gap in such places as Tuscaloosa County (which is possible since its part of his district).
Obama did very poorly in some traditionally Democratic counties. Davis is going to need to do 10 points better in some of these places which is possible.
Also the 7th Congressional District race will be over in the primary so you cannot count on increased turnout in the Black Belt like you did in Presidential 2008.
It is difficult for a Birmingham based candidate to win a general regardless of race. Davis would be an underdog in a general, but do not count him out with his increased presence, likability and ability to raise funds
1) there are people who want a more liberal candidate to represent this democratic district. they say nasty things about his moderate record.
2) it is assumed that he’ll never win statewide in a southern state because he’s black and he’s too liberal and he represents too liberal district.
really no point in blacks running statewide south of the mason dixon. i mean they’re too conservative for their districts. they are too liberal for the state (no matter how they vote apparently).
i think this is dissappointing and looks a little like…like…what’s that r word?
but obama introduced a template and i don’t think it should be ignored. he was smart, attractive, inspiring and competent and he ran as a talented leader who happened to be black. meek and davis and deval patrick before him want to run this way. and it might work.
if any other candidate who had a rock solid base in 1/7th of the state (his district), and around the state (AAs), and is articulate and has an impressive resume and is running for an open seat, we would say that he is an excellent candidate for this seat. still an underdog because of the republicaness of the state. but hell, we haven’t won the governorship of alabama since 1998.
i mean the old recipe – conservative white democrat – siegelman in AL, hodges in SC, musgrove in MS, can work, but it hasn’t worked lately. i certainly think we should be willing to accept, maybe even be excited about a different recipe in the united states.
Seriously…Gov of Alabama?? Alabama?? The state of tumble down religious drive by populism? How is Davis, a liberal democrat federal legislator (to AL voters, not voting 70% republican all the time is being a ‘librul’)going to win a state Obama got 10% of the white vote and before that Kerry and Gore got 19% and 25% respectively, is going to vote for Davis! Like I said..nothing to see here..move along.
same time and building as a Folsom speech scheduled for Friday
I don’t know how many Alabamians have weighed in on this site, but it seems clear to me that the number is not great. As an Alabamian, I would put two elements in the mix: first, Davis is an extremely gifted politician, he is an exceptional speaker, he draws an emotional response from many of his supporters, and while he lacks Ford’s glamour looks, it would be a huge mistake to underestimate his candidate skills.
Second, there have been two major published polls in the last several months showing Davis ahead of the leading Republican candidates for governor. Polls are not gospel, but it is unfair to Davis to paint him as a quixotic or Denise Majette like candidate.
On the race front, time will tell how my state reacts to a living breathing black candidate for governor. I do know that the Mayor of my hometown Mobile is black and won easily in a predominately white city, and that he ran comfortably ahead of Obama in the white precincts in Mobile. I also know that a lily white rural legislative district that gave Obama 15% of the vote has a black Democratic state Representative who won with over 60%. I also know that a black who served on the Alabama Supreme Court until he lost in the Alabama Republican landslide in 2000 carried a slew of counties where Obama got trounced.
The bottom line: politics is very local here, and I would not rule out the possibility that while Davis is not our Obama that he could be our Bobby Jindal.